Revenue model.
Driven by live headcount and staff cost. Edit revenue-per-head benchmarks, overhead and exit multiples to see the scenarios update.
Inputs
Conservative — €/head
Average full-svc agency
Base case — €/head
Premium brand retainer
Strong — €/head
Octagon, IMG sub-agency
Elite — €/head
IMG, Wasserman boutique
Firethorn target — €/head
Premium sport & luxury
Overhead estimate (€)
Office, tech, travel, freelance
Target EBITDA margin
%
25–35% for premium
Staff cost ratio target
%
Industry norm 45–55%
Exit multiple — low
EBITDA multiple
Exit multiple — high
EBITDA multiple
Live cost base
Total headcount
30
Staff cost (pre-contingency)
€3,114,443
+ Overhead
€1,200,000
Breakeven revenue
€6,163,490
At 30% margin
Revenue scenarios
| Metric | Conservative | Base case | Strong | Elite | Firethorn target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue per head | €150,000 | €200,000 | €250,000 | €320,000 | €300,000 |
| Total revenue | €4,500,000 | €6,000,000 | €7,500,000 | €9,600,000 | €9,000,000 |
| Staff cost (pre-contingency) | €3,114,443 | €3,114,443 | €3,114,443 | €3,114,443 | €3,114,443 |
| Staff cost ratio | 69.2% | 51.9% | 41.5% | 32.4% | 34.6% |
| Overhead | €1,200,000 | €1,200,000 | €1,200,000 | €1,200,000 | €1,200,000 |
| Total cost base | €4,314,443 | €4,314,443 | €4,314,443 | €4,314,443 | €4,314,443 |
| EBITDA | €185,557 | €1,685,557 | €3,185,557 | €5,285,557 | €4,685,557 |
| EBITDA margin | 4.1% | 28.1% | 42.5% | 55.1% | 52.1% |
Valuation implications
| Metric | Conservative | Base case | Strong | Elite | Firethorn target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | €185,557 | €1,685,557 | €3,185,557 | €5,285,557 | €4,685,557 |
| Valuation at 8× EBITDA | €1,484,456 | €13,484,456 | €25,484,456 | €42,284,456 | €37,484,456 |
| Valuation at 11× EBITDA | €2,041,127 | €18,541,127 | €35,041,127 | €58,141,127 | €51,541,127 |
Industry benchmarks
| Agency | Type | HC | Est. Revenue | Rev / head | EBITDA margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Octagon (WPP) | Sports marketing | 500 | €150,000,000 | €300,000 | 18–22% | Global leader; IMG rival; premium sport & talent mgmt |
| Two Circles | Sports data & content | 350 | €90,000,000 | €257,000 | 22–28% | Sold to Bruin Capital ~£100m; strong sports data play |
| Pitch Marketing | Sports content agency | 120 | €28,000,000 | €233,000 | 18–24% | UK-based; F1, Premier League, Olympics work |
| CSM Sport & Entertainment | Full-svc sports | 400 | €95,000,000 | €237,000 | 15–20% | Multiple global sporting events and brand work |
| The Social Element | Social media agency | 200 | €28,000,000 | €140,000 | 12–18% | Pure social; lower rev/head; volume model |
| Imagination | Experiential & content | 600 | €110,000,000 | €183,000 | 14–20% | Global; luxury events; brand experiences |
| Therapy Studios | Premium sport content | 45 | €12,000,000 | €267,000 | n/a | Boutique; NFL, NBA, F1; high rev/head at small scale |
| The Brand Amp | Golf / luxury content | 28 | €8,500,000 | €303,000 | n/a | Golf-focused boutique; closest comparable to Firethorn |
Sources: PRCA Agency Census 2024, Sport Business Group, PitchBook / public filings (2024–25).